This Thanksgiving, get ready for what could be one of the most costly family meals in history. With Covid-19 cases finally dropping and vaccines widely available, many people are excited to reunite with their families to reconnect and, of course, feast together. Mashed potatoes, turkey, gravy, and cranberries are all Thanksgiving dinner staples, but this year they will be coming at much steeper prices. 

Ever since Covid-19 first wreaked havoc across the globe, labor shortages have become increasingly pervasive. A lack of workers in the labor force leads to a long chain of issues, including delays with production and distribution of foods, as well as increases in the prices of products. 

It is estimated that the price of goods and foods has risen over five percent in the past year, and an estimate from American Farm Bureau predicts that the cost of poultry could go up 10-20%. The cost of a Thanksgiving turkey for the average American family will be noticeably higher than it has been in years prior by virtue of what the Biden administration labels as “transitory inflation.” The diminished work force and delayed transportation are causing many problems in the supply chain, which, in turn, are causing an overall shortage of products, leading to frustrated customers and price inflation. 

Richard Coraine, Union Square Hospitality Group’s Senior Advisor, explained to The Riverdale Review that in the restaurants he oversees, the distributors they rely on simply do not have enough produce to send out. There are too many orders coming in and not enough products to meet demand. Produce from California being delivered by truck is taking three times longer than usual to transport. The delivery process nationwide is being delayed significantly because of the shortage of transportation workers. Anything arriving from overseas is even harder to access because the staffing for airlines and the number of flight departures are down. To try to counter this phenomenon, the distributors “short” the products, meaning they partially fill orders so each restaurant gets a smaller amount than they ordered. 

When asked about the cycle of inflation and whether or not his restaurants were also increasing their prices like the distributors, Coraine said, “Therein lies the challenge, because while we don’t want to pass the higher prices to the customer, it’s very hard not to if we want to stay in business. I do think you are going to see restaurants and grocery stores charging more because their products are costing more.” In order to avoid higher prices, families must begin their holiday shopping early to secure the main dish of their Thanksgiving dinner. Leonard Simchick, a Manhattan butcher, told The Riverdale Review that although he won’t face a huge price increase when trying to buy turkeys, grocery stores may. Simchick has a longstanding personal relationship with the small farm supplying him, and unlike the grocery stores, which order in the thousands, Simchik orders in the hundreds. He can guarantee he won’t be charging through the roof this year, even though the grocery stores might have to. The lack of supply will also show up in the sizes of turkeys available, and the demand might clash with that. The stores may have a higher stock of small turkeys, and the consumers might be demanding larger ones, or vice versa. The suppliers cannot promise what sizes they will be able to deliver en masse. 

The food shortages and high prices are not only affecting those who directly purchase food, but also those who rely on food banks for meals. Before Covid, 1.2 million New Yorkers were encountering food instability, and now approximately 1.5 million New Yorkers are, a 25% increase. This increase in need paired with higher food prices might mean food banks cannot feed as many hungry New Yorkers as they usually do.

The limited supply of popular ingredients, coupled with high demand from consumers and restaurant orders, means food will cost more and be harder to find this upcoming season. While some Americans may celebrate the festivities like normal, and view this as a small inconvenience, it is important to remember that many will struggle to put ample food on the table due to their socioeconomic limitations and the record food shortages. Normalcy is not expected in the near future either. It is predicted that the supply chain issues will not resolve until sometime in 2022, or possibly even 2023.